As the Durban-hosted United Nations climate change talks draw to a close with hopes that the last of the “big” countries still in the game — the US, China and India — will join most of the rest of the world in signing a deal, there is both little time to reflect on the events of the past two weeks, and a lot of it.

Looking back across all the jostling and political power play (and there’s a hell of a lot), the group that most impressed me at “COP-17″ were the Canadian youth. Enthusiastic, committed, patriotic yet critical, they were an asset to their country and it is sad that part of their group was deported for a silent protest in a plenary session.

Although I was not witness to it, I’m told the group got up and turned their backs on Canadian Environment Minister Peter Kent as he gave his opening address to the Wednesday plenary session. They revealed T-shirts emblazoned “Turn your back on Canada”.

It was one of the last of a series of innovative and expressive protests against Canada’s refusal to sign up to a second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol, or any treaty that would have it reduce the emission into the atmosphere of gases linked to climate change. They had bake sales to raise money to take on the fossil-fuel lobby they believe (with good reason) to be behind Canada’s recalcitrance. It is the only signatory to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol that has openly said it will not meet the emission reduction targets set by the protocol.

Canada was the talk of the International Convention Centre on week one, partly due to the group’s relentless campaigning. By week two I got the feeling Canada was being disregarded. It did not feature. Everyone knew it was not going to budge, and pressure on the US mounted, as did pressure on China.

These two countries are the world’s biggest economies (US in first place, China second) and its largest greenhouse gas emitters (China first, US second), accounting for in the region of 40% of total global emissions. Twisting thumbscrews makes sense. I hope it works.

When I left the ICC on Friday morning, EU climate change commissioner Connie Hedegaard had just announced that South Africa and Brazil were willing to sign up to legally binding commitments under a treaty — Brazil after 2020, but the timeline for South Africa was not clear.

That gives some credence to the rumour that rustled through the halls throughout the past two weeks that the BASIC group (Brazil, South Africa, China and India) was breaking up. More importantly, it calls the US’s bluff — or part thereof.

The US has long said it will not sign up to any legally binding commitments if large industrialising economies — pretty much the BASIC group, and especially China — do not do so too. Of course, the US will argue that because South Africa and Brazil are calling for ”common, but differentiated” responsibilities — meaning that their emissions reductions targets should not be as onerous as those for industrialised countries — what the two BASIC countries are offering is not good enough.

The next few hours will be telling, and UN staff were saying this morning that there was talk of the negotiations covering most of Saturday. I get the feeling the EU is pushing hard for a treaty. Some say what they are promising is not enough, and there is something in that, but let’s not forget that this time round they have come up with what appears to be the only viable solution to the impasse that has dogged climate change negotiations for years.

The US now faces signing up, or, once again, being the big country that is not willing to help the world reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Of course, it will argue it is already doing a lot back home, and it is true that the US is a lot “greener” than it was. You could say that about just about any country. It is still the US, however, that has the world’s largest per capita “carbon footprint”. It is time for change.

A Durban Deal is in the offing. The US is by no means the only baddie — Canada, Russia and Japan are all termed “ship jumpers” for refusing to sign up to a second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol. The first commitment period — the deadline by which emissions reduction targets set under the protocol should be met — expires at the end of next year.

By far the most moving media briefing I went to was the one held by the Alliance of Small Island States (Aosis) on Thursday, at which Samu Saumatua, Fiji’s environment minister, said: “(Climate change) is not a fairy tale, it is not a horror story. It is reality.”

What the US, China and India are doing — along with the EU and all the other countries, regions and nations that have greater political, economic and military power than Aosis, Bangladesh and other small countries and economies, many in Africa — is gambling away other people’s futures because they are scared to let go of a lifestyle of, frankly, almost obscene excess. Yes, even in the midst of this financial crisis.

It is so incredibly sad that it is reasonably likely that, once again, money and political power will win over the moral high ground. There is time to change the course of history in Durban. It is up to these countries to do so.

The world waits.

Tags: China, climate change, COP-17, global warming, US