The government had hoped to raise €1.7bn-€2bn from the levy in the fourth quarter of last year. But a massive unions-led civil disobedience movement against this “injustice” scuppered that and a ruling that it was illegal to disconnect people’s electricity supply for non-payment sent the collection rate even lower.

However, the memorandum of understanding with the IMF-EU signed in March demands that Athens collects a range of back taxes, such as the property tax from 2009 which was essentially never collected. So it will be interesting to see how the Troika reacts to these most recent developments.

Ironically, the scale of non-payment means that the Public Power Corporation  (PPC) itself has run out of money. Last month it needed a €250m liquidity injection from the government so as to avert a nation-wide energy supply meltdown. So even less of the already-too-small pot of tax revenues is going to the government. The PPC has until end of June to find new sources of funding. It seems unlikely that people who stopped paying power bills last year are suddenly going to start now.

From a friendly trader: “When we talk about Greece “running out of money” in coming weeks/months, the combination of dire recession, plus non-compliance in Revenue collection will speed the day that Civil Servants and suppliers are paid in IOU’s or “New Drachma” in the absence of any funding from the EU/IMF…”

While EU-IMF funding is still forthcoming, the overwhelming support for the anti-bailout parties as Greece heads for new elections next month puts an obvious question mark over future assistance. But the PPC experience suggests we really could be moving towards the IOU stage of this crisis as liquidity issues bite.

As Lloyd said in Dumb and Dumber: That’s as good as money, sir. Those are IOUs.

Posted by Masa Serdarevic at FT Alphaville

 Assume that the two main things that let restaurants succeed are food quality and various other things that we can collectively call atmosphere. The logic of conditioning on a collider implies that among surviving restaurants there should be a negative correlation between atmosphere and food. This implies that if you are monomaniacally focused on good food you should follow the heuristic of avoiding fashionistas and seeking out unpopular ethnic groups as the only way such places could possibly stay in business is if they offer good food.

 Gabriel Rossman, When Correlation Is Not Causation, But Something Much More Screwy

 Jim Sogi, Daily Speculations

The New York Times

Let’s now create a pile B costing an equal amount. For that, we could buy all U.S. cropland (400 million acres with output of about $200 billion annually), plus 16 Exxon Mobils (the world’s most profitable company, one earning more than $40 billion annually). After these purchases, we would have about $1 trillion left over for walking-around money (no sense feeling strapped after this buying binge). Can you imagine an investor with $9.6 trillion selecting pile A over pile B?

Beyond the staggering valuation given the existing stock of gold, current prices make today’s annual production of gold command about $160 billion. Buyers – whether jewelry and industrial users, frightened individuals, or speculators – must continually absorb this additional supply to merely maintain an equilibrium at present prices.

A century from now the 400 million acres of farmland will have produced staggering amounts of corn, wheat, cotton, and other crops – and will continue to produce that valuable bounty, whatever the currency may be. Exxon Mobil will probably have delivered trillions of dollars in dividends to its owners and will also hold assets worth many more trillions (and, remember, you get 16 Exxons). The 170,000 tons of gold will be unchanged in size and still incapable of producing anything. You can fondle the cube, but it will not respond.

Admittedly, when people a century from now are fearful, it’s likely many will still rush to gold. I’m confident, however, that the $9.6 trillion current valuation of pile A will compound over the century at a rate far inferior to that achieved by pile B.

Warren Buffett, 2011 Berkshire Letter

 Slim listed 10 rules for poker success:

 1. Play the players more than you play the cards.
2. Choose the right opponents. If you don’t see a sucker at the table, you’re it.
3. Never play with money you can’t afford to lose.
4. Be tight and aggressive; don’t play many hands, but when you do, be prepared to move in.
5. Always be observing at a poker game. The minute you’re there, you’re working.
6. Watch the other players for “tells” before you look at your own cards.
7. Diversify your play so others can’t pick up your tells.
8. Choose your speed based on the direction of the game; Slow in a fast game, fast in a slow game.
9. Be able to quit a loser, and for goodness’ sake, keep playing when you’re winning.
10. Conduct yourself honourably so you’re always invited back .

 From Jeff Watson at Daily Speculations

Source: The Chart Store

 Jesse Livermore, How to Trade in Stocks.

What Investors Really Want, Meir Statman.

Dilbert.com Comic Strip by Scott Adams