Nothing in South Africa will be as it seems in 2012; like a duck swimming, seemingly easily when viewed normally, all the action, all the drama and all the intrigue will be below the waterline and out of sight.

Forces are colliding; the soul and the future direction of the ANC is the prize with conflicting ideologies being championed, but make no mistake: this is far less about ideology itself and much more about who has the hand on the tiller of patronage and leadership. This is naked, unadorned self-interest at its most pure.

This is the problem and the paradox in trying to anticipate events and outcomes in South Africa in a year of possible succession change contingent on an ANC congress, the last of which saw the two bull elephants Thabo Mbeki and Jacob Zuma more than trampling the grass. So what will be the harbinger and outcome of Polokwane 2012?

It is vital to understand that everything that happens or is planned to happen in 2012 will be shaped according to the prism of seeking self-advantage for the incumbent regime, or disadvantage to the real, or imagined, opposition forces (forces of course still within the ANC).

Against a global backdrop of continuing economic strain, tightening of belts, restructuring and low or perhaps even nil growth, it might seem economic suicide to increase demands on the fiscus by increasing welfare payments and introducing a national health scheme – but don’t bet against these being announced, if not introduced. Pragmatism trumps logic and President Zuma will pull out all the stops to gain re-election and head off the populist threat from the left; paying the bills and sorting out the mess can come later.

So the world economy will not provide any sparks, and ANC party in-fighting and politics will be the name of the game internally. Are there any bright prospects on the horizon that could be game-changers?

The government will launch a few major infrastructure programmes, rail and the ports being the major beneficiaries, but these are unlikely to provide sufficient of a fillip other than to keep the economy ticking along at low or even flat growth rates, much to the chagrin of President Zuma, who knows that the creation of jobs can be his real saviour.

Otherwise, Mozambique’s natural gas, where proven deposits are now perhaps in excess of 30-trillion cubic feet, has the capacity to transform the region, with the deposits being large enough not only to meet the demands of southern Africa, but also to tempt big buyers from Asia to invest.

However, 2012 is unlikely to see much physical development as some of the founding companies put themselves up for sale and the cash-rich oil majors buy in and take over. Still, look to this sector to have a material impact not just on Mozambique but also on South Africa and the region as the necessary infrastructure, engineering and development are put in place.

Tags: #ANC, #South Africa, 2012, Jacob Zuma, Mozambique, natural gas, politics